A few reasons strategy is hard

  • Strategy is dynamic. The best strategies emerge as complex decision environments evolve.
  • Strategy is rarely predictable. Because predictions are rooted in history, they work best in environments that aren’t changing, that aren’t going through a regime shift. 
  • Strategy is hard to practice. That is, it’s hard to backtest, especially if facing an important decision in a rapidly-changing decision space. 
  • The most interesting strategies are created, and aren’t known in advance. They aren’t announced. 
  • The most impactful strategies have long tails. And impacts that are felt far beyond their domains. 
  • Strategy is human. If people are purposive (they don’t have to be fully rational, even boundedly rational will do), then strategy is one of the most human activities. Even an AI will struggle because of the benefits of seeing “beyond the board”. 
  • In strategy, the most important ones emerge when the decision space is infinitely-dimensioned. People may struggle with that complexity, but the remarkable ones will find ways around it – not just to simplify it, but to transcend it. 
  • Strategy is granular. 

Data for dissertations August 28, 2017

35514 Quantifying the Size and Geographic Extent of CCTV’s Impact on Reducing Crime in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2003-2013

35613 Expanded Assessment of the Consequences of Imprisonment for Employment in Maricopa County, Arizona from 2011-2012

36624 Los Angeles Metropolitan Area Surveys [LAMAS] 5, 1972

36645 Afrobarometer Round 6: The Quality of Democracy and Governance in Burundi, 2014

36679 Afrobarometer Round 6: The Quality of Democracy and Governance in Cape Verde, 2014

New data from ICPSR

36760 Annual Survey of Jails, 2015 http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR36760.v1

36800 Research on Pathways to Desistance [Maricopa County, AZ and Philadelphia County, PA]: Subject Measures – Scales, 2000-2010 http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR36800.v1

36825 Child Care and Development Fund Administrative Data, Federal Fiscal Year 2014 http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR36825.v1

36842 Health Reform Monitoring Survey, Third Quarter 2016 http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR36842.v1